Trump's Gaza Plan: A New Challenge for Arab Allies

 Trump's Gaza Plan: A New Challenge for Arab Allies

In a significant shift from decades of U.S. foreign policy, President Donald Trump’s recent plan regarding Gaza has stirred a complex mix of geopolitical concerns, placing a strain on his Arab allies. Trump’s approach, which includes the potential forcible displacement of Gaza's 2.1 million Palestinians, signals a departure from the historical U.S. stance of supporting the potential establishment of a Palestinian state, a move that has sparked anxiety across the Middle East. This shift raises questions not only about U.S. foreign policy but also about the delicate balance Arab leaders must navigate in response to pressure from both Washington and their own people.

Saudi Arabia: Caught Between Tradition and Pragmatism

At the center of this delicate geopolitical web is Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. ally in the Gulf and a regional powerhouse. Saudi Arabia, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), has long pursued a delicate balancing act—fostering strong relations with the U.S. while also maintaining the Arab world’s commitment to Palestinian aspirations. MBS, a powerful figure who tightly controls political dissent within his kingdom, is keenly aware of the internal challenges that arise from Saudi citizens’ pro-Palestinian sentiment. This popular support for Palestinians was reignited in the wake of Israel's military actions in Gaza following the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack.

On the one hand, MBS has a vested interest in maintaining strong ties with the U.S. to secure economic investments, including critical U.S. military contracts, as well as to advance his aspirations for regional stability. Normalizing relations with Israel, something that MBS has hinted at in the past, is also in line with his broader vision of economic growth and modernization. Yet, the idea of expelling Gaza’s Palestinians—a potential outcome of Trump’s plan—puts MBS in a difficult position. As the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, MBS faces enormous pressure to support the Palestinian cause, especially in the eyes of his own citizens, who view Gaza as a key issue of Arab identity and solidarity.

MBS has been careful not to openly condemn Trump’s Gaza plan, despite its radical nature. Instead, he has reasserted Saudi Arabia’s position on the establishment of a Palestinian state. His government has made it clear that Saudi Arabia’s unwavering support for Palestinian sovereignty remains a priority. However, by avoiding direct criticism of Trump, MBS seeks to avoid jeopardizing his valuable relationship with the U.S., which remains integral to Saudi Arabia’s economic and security interests.

Egypt and Jordan: Struggling to Maintain Stability

Saudi Arabia is not alone in grappling with the political implications of Trump's Gaza plan. Egypt and Jordan—two countries that are also key U.S. allies in the Middle East—find themselves in an even more precarious situation. Both countries have already absorbed millions of Palestinian refugees over the decades, particularly during the 1948 and 1967 Arab-Israeli wars. The prospect of yet another wave of Gazans being displaced puts immense pressure on Egypt and Jordan, both of which are already dealing with their own political and economic challenges.

Egypt, led by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, has been a longstanding ally of the U.S. and has maintained a delicate peace with Israel since the Camp David Accords in 1978. However, Egypt’s national security interests are closely tied to its ability to control the flow of refugees and maintain stability along its border with Gaza. Sisi has made it clear that Egypt cannot tolerate a large influx of Gazans, which he views as a potential threat to Egyptian stability. In a public statement, he declared that the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza “can never be tolerated,” emphasizing that such an outcome would undermine Egypt’s national security.

Similarly, Jordan’s King Abdullah faces a difficult balancing act. As a key U.S. ally and a custodian of Jerusalem's Islamic holy sites, Abdullah must navigate both his commitment to Palestinian rights and the pressure to align with U.S. and Israeli interests. Jordan has already absorbed a significant number of Palestinian refugees, and the prospect of taking in more from Gaza would further strain the country’s already limited resources. Jordan has insisted that Palestinians must remain on their land, an assertion that is both a moral stance and a practical one—given the potential instability that could result from such an influx of refugees.

Both Egypt and Jordan also have longstanding concerns about Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza. While they oppose Israeli actions in Gaza, they are equally wary of Hamas, which represents a political Islamic ideology that threatens the stability of their own regimes. Both countries have taken steps to crack down on Hamas, with Egypt going so far as to imprison members of Hamas’ parent group, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Jordan expelling individuals affiliated with the group. These actions underscore the tension Arab leaders feel in navigating their responses to both the Israeli military campaign in Gaza and the broader regional dynamics.

A Regional Geopolitical Tangle

For the region as a whole, Trump’s Gaza plan complicates an already fragile geopolitical situation. Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas is not just about security; it is also about the broader regional balance of power. The possibility of forcibly expelling Gazans introduces a new layer of complexity, one that could destabilize the entire region. As Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan struggle to reconcile their interests with their obligations to the Palestinians, the ripple effects of Trump’s proposal could have far-reaching consequences for Middle East stability.

Netanyahu’s assertion that Israel must eradicate Hamas is a position that has garnered significant support from both the U.S. and other Western democracies. However, Trump’s rhetoric goes beyond the typical calls for the destruction of Hamas; it suggests a much more radical solution—one that could involve the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. This move seems to be at odds with the goals of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has previously spoken of the need for a “demilitarized and deradicalized Gaza” but has not advocated for mass expulsion.

Trump’s shift in policy raises fundamental questions about the future of Gaza and Palestinian statehood. A key element of Netanyahu’s vision for Gaza was to transform it into a thriving economic zone linked to Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Neom project, a plan that relies heavily on Israeli-Saudi normalization. However, normalization cannot be achieved without addressing the issue of Palestinian statehood—a point that seems to be lost in Trump’s focus on a more immediate, short-term solution to the conflict.

The Bigger Picture: Geopolitical Consequences

In the grand scheme, Trump’s Gaza plan poses a significant risk to regional stability. The forced expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, especially on such a large scale, could have catastrophic consequences not only for the Palestinians but also for the broader Middle East. It would exacerbate tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbors, potentially destabilize Egypt and Jordan, and further inflame anti-American sentiment across the region.

At the same time, the Trump administration’s actions highlight the growing divide between U.S. foreign policy and the realities on the ground in the Middle East. As Arab allies like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan struggle to align themselves with the U.S. while balancing their own domestic and regional interests, the future of the Gaza Strip and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains uncertain. It is clear that Trump’s plan, though seemingly bold, may well lead to a series of unforeseen consequences that could reshape the geopolitical landscape in ways no one can yet predict.